Price Expectation Report – February 2020

This report is based on the responses of more than 40,000 Australian vendors who sold property between July and December 2019.

It gives a unique insight into how homeowners are feeling about the sale price they get.

We ask one question as vendors leave an agent review on ratemyagent.com.au, was your sale price above, in line with, or below your expectations?

It’s a question that gives us a picture of the emotional state of the market. It’s also a reflection of the work of good agents, to set expectations then work hard for the best outcome possible.

To make the findings relatable we equate above expectation results with happy vendors, and below expectation results with unhappy vendors.

The data reveals;

Vendor happiness continued to improve significantly in the second half of 2019. Overall, net happiness doubled in the year nationally. This was led by an explosive recovery in Metropolitan Melbourne and Sydney, both of which ended 2019 five to six times their level of Dec-18. (Net happiness = Above minus Below level expectation)
Victoria has overtaken Tasmania as the state with happiest sellers. Net happiness in Victoria almost tripled in the year (comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19, 18% to 52%). As at Dec-19, Melbourne metro areas scored 7 of the top 10 happiest Local Government Authorities nationally, while regional Victoria was the strongest of all regional areas.
Across 2019

net happiness levels improved across all states – even WA – all property values and in both metro and regional areas
largest regional gains are dominated by Sydney (7 of the top 10 places), Melbourne took the other 3, with Southern Melbourne showing the largest gain nationally
only 4 regions saw net happiness drop, South East Tasmania, Southern & Hills (SA), Southwest VIC, Canberra Region (NSW)

Mark Armstrong, CEO of RateMyAgent said “Our Price Expectation Report shows just how far the property market has recovered, with happiness doubling in the year nationally, strong gains in metro areas and a surging Victorian market leading the charge. As we look to the year ahead there are plenty of reasons for optimism.”

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NSW Report	VIC Report	QLD Report
WA Report	SA Report	TAS Report

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

The smile shaped curve evident from the first half of 2019 continued into the second half of the year.
Net happiness doubled in the year nationally, from 20% in Dec-18 to 41% in Dec-19.

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STATE BY STATE

Quarterly summary:

Victoria has overtaken Tasmania in the second half of 2019 to be the happiest state.
Note: minimum 100 reviews so excludes NT

Trend:

Victoria, together with NSW have shown strong, continuously upward growth in happiness over the second half of 2019. Both have more than doubled in net happiness over the year.
WA, while still remaining significantly behind the other states, has registered increases in happiness over the second half of the year.
Month-to-month there is volatility in net happiness, especially evident in Tasmania, ACT and Western Australia, while Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales and ACT regularly change ranking places.

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METRO VS. REGIONAL

Having overtaken regional properties in June-19, metro surged ahead in the second half of 2019 while regional properties continued steady growth.
Dec-19 data is robust but not complete as sale data continues to come through until Feb/Mar 2020. We will review Dec again next quarter for a more accurate picture.

Reviewing Metro and Regional by state reveals surge in metropolitan Melbourne & Sydney. Sydney achieved the highest rate of growth ending 2019 at six times it’s Dec-18 level. Melbourne was the happiest place overall, and grew five times its Dec-18 level in 2019.
Regional Victoria has also strengthened significantly. It didn’t experience the drop of metropolitan Victoria in 2018, and has improved steadily through 2019.
Regional NSW and Queensland, and Greater Brisbane have all shown modest improvements through 2019.

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OUR HAPPY PLACES

Australia’s top 20 happiest regions

A surge in VIC and NSW has seen 7 regions leapfrog Hobart, previously the Happiest region in Australia. 6 of those regions are Victorian and Victoria holds 6 of the top 10 regions nationally. 3 Victorian regions have a net happiness of 60% or higher, which are the highest levels we’ve seen in our reporting.
In the Top 20 Nationally, VIC has the most regions (11), with NSW (7) and TAS (2). SA & ACT have been edged out of the Top 20.
Note: minimum 50 reviews

Examining which regions have experienced the largest rise in net happy scores in 2019;

Sydney has 7 of the top 10 largest rises nationally
Melbourne has the other 3 places, with the largest gain nationally in Southern Melbourne Metro areas account for all of the Top 10
Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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THE UNHAPPIEST 🙁

Australia’s top 20 unhappiest regions

It’s positive that our unhappiest places are significantly happier than they were at the half year point. Previously the range of net happiness in the Top 20 was from 4% to 28%
QLD has the most unhappy regions (6), with NSW (5), VIC & WA (3), SA(2), TAS (1) following. Compared to mid year this again shows an improvement in NSW and VIC.
There’s a dramatic drop in Metro areas, with only 4 now in the Top 20 Unhappiest list. This is showing a relative greater improvement in metro areas vs rural, rather than a decline in rural areas.

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest drops, or the smallest gains, net happy scores in 2019;

Only 4 regions have a lower happiness score in Dec-19 than they did in Dec-18
The Top 10 list is spread out across states and territories, with no one state or territory dominating.
Drops in net happiness are dominated by regional areas, with 7 of the Top 10
Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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THE PRICE OF YOUR HOME AND HAPPINESS

Quarterly summary:

All price ranges have improved significantly since June. The highest increase has been in $1 – 1.499m range (+79%), with $0.5-0.99m (+61%), $1.5m (+54%) and $0.499m or less (20%) following

Trend:

There’s been a strong recovery through 2019 in all price ranges $0.5m and above, and all price ranges have increased across the year.
There’s volatility month-to-month in higher price ranges – $1m and upwards – suggesting the market is not fully stabilized and norms are not fully set
Dec-19 data is robust but not complete as sale data continues to come through until Feb/Mar 2020. We will review Dec again next quarter for a more accurate picture.

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STATE SNAPSHOTS – IN DETAIL STATE BY STATE

Note: 50 reviews minimum

NEW SOUTH WALES

Regions in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

Inner West Sydney jumps to 1st, registering a 59% increase vs. June 2019
Metro properties have shown large gains and leapfrogged regional properties for vendor happiness. The top 7 positions are all metro, and all in Sydney. Regional properties are showing small gains or losses verses the last report.

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest changes in net happy scores in 2019;

Sydney showing the largest gains, with regional areas showing the smallest gains.
Only 1 region – Canberra Region – reducing in net happiness in 2019
Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

Local government areas in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

Demonstrates the strength of the recovery in metro areas, with 16 of the top 20 LGA positions, vs. 9 in June-19.
Inner West 232% increase to claim top position

Examining the changes in LGA scores in 2019;

- Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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VICTORIA

Regions in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Southern Melbourne 89% rise vs. June report to rise to happiest VIC region
  - Metro still dominates the happiest areas – 9 of the top 15 places – but regional VIC performs more strongly than regional NSW
  - Not all regions showing gains vs last report. Outer North Melbourne moves from 1st position previously to 15th, dropping 12%.

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest changes in net happy scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

Local government areas in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Mildura remains in 1st position and registers a 47% gain vs June report.
  - Metro LGAs dominate top 20, with 17 places

Examining the changes in LGA scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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QUEENSLAND

Regions in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - North Queensland moves to 1st position from 6th in the previous report, with a 269% gain.

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest changes in net happy scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

Local government areas in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Townsville jumps to 1st position, from 14th in June report with 241% increase

Examining the changes in LGA scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Regions in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - South West moves to be happiest region with +30% gain compared to June report.

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest changes in net happy scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

Local government areas in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Melville in 1st position with a +15% gain from the previous report.

Examining the changes in LGA scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Regions in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Metropolitan Adelaide remains in 1st position, with a 7% gain vs June report.

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest changes in net happy scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

Local government areas in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Marion rises to happiest region, gaining 10% from June report.

Examining the changes in LGA scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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TASMANIA

Regions in order of net price expectation at Dec-19 (highest to lowest)

- - Hobart remains happiest region, remaining static at +56%
  - Launceston into 2nd position, gaining 6% from June report
  - Note: minimum 50 reviews

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

- - Clarence becomest happiest LGA, gaining 6% vs June report
  - Meander Valley into 2nd position, gaining 8% from previous report, while Hobart is less happy vs previous report -5%. In the previous report no Tasmanian LGA registered a decline in happiness
  - Note: minimum 50 reviews

Examining which regions have have experienced the largest changes in net happy scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

Examining the changes in LGA scores in 2019;

- - Note: minimum 50 reviews, comparing Dec-18 to Dec-19 data

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